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Second, Apple seems to be placing their bets on HTML 5. HTML 5 is suppose to supplant the need for Flash and Silverlight. Google also seems to be embracing HTML 5 with their Wave product.
I'm having one of those duh moments. How could I forget to mention HTML 5?
You make good points about why Apple has resisted Flash. But I think too, Apple is trying to tell Adobe to do better. Flash was never developed to be economical to batteries or CPUs. And Adobe, being Adobe, has become big and arrogant. It's a company that no longer listens to customers.
Frankly, if someone can come up with something better than Flash that is really built for handhelds like my iPhone, great. But the last thing I want is to be looking at a Web site on my iPhone, only to watch my hand melt because of - you guessed it - Flash.
To sum up: no thanks. I'll pass.
If they accept flash.they would have to accept Silverlight.
The same goes for Silverlight.if Apple accepts Silverlight, they will have to accept Flash.
Sounds strange, but trust me. if they allow flash, then Microsoft would pressure Apple to accept Silverlight into the iPhone since then Microsoft would be able to cry foul of favoritism since they are benefiting a third party vendor without any base to give Adobe Exclusive Operation Right for what is a platform technology stack.
The same goes for Adobe. if Apple accepts Silverlight first. they would be dumb to not pressure and cry foul that flash is more widespread and that it is not cool to not accept it if they have accepted Silverlight on the same argument i described above.
it would be actually easier for Microsoft to get Silverlight into the iPhone if Apple accepts flash first since Apple is now using several Microsoft Technologies in the iPhone and OS X will also get more of them with Snow Leopard.
So they need to shun all plugins or give guidelines for the plugins to be accepted. the obvious guidelines would be a required efficiency to enter and special support for operating in the iphone.
They do not need to give guidance on what plugins will be accepted at all.
Apple don't have antitrust concerns around iPhone, they plot their own course, and if they wanted any one of Silverlight, Flash or JavaFX, they will do it.
I think the model they have will server them well - I wouldn't change if I where them.
But right now there is already replacement for this. a group of ex-adobe developer got a a way so you can develop in as3 and then the app gets translated to iphone native code.
the same goes for Mono/Moonlight project that got a way so you can develop the app in Silverlight/Moonlight and then convert it to the iphone native code.
Hmm, that's interesting. Do you know what that projects called, or what the limitations are?
Of course:
MonoTouch is the version of the iphone:
http://www.mono-project.com/MonoTouch
1.0 MonoTouch limitations:
http://www.mono-project.com/MonoTouch:Limitations
MonoTouch 2.0 is the one that will have silverlight/moonlight on top of what they offer with Mono
http://www.mono-project.com/MonoTouch_Roadmap
Mono is already in Android Market for that matter. a version of MonoTouch for android 1.5 and WM6.5 should follow after MonoTouch iphone 1.0 launches or 2.0 launches since Miguel stated that Silverlight/Moonlight to app will be cross platform.
http://tirania.org/blog/archive/2009/Jun-29.html
If they allow Flash then they are locked into the ARM processor forever.
If they decide to change the processor in the iPhone then they will be forced to wait for Adobe (again) to rewrite Flash before they can do anything.
Not to mention the fact that Flash is slow, useless and irrelevant.
As Dave said, HTML5 is preferred over Flash. Flash is only useful for video at the moment and it looks like YouTube is going to switch to HTML5 from Flash.
My ASUS eee PC901 running Linux also plays Flash, both via the net and also from the stored .flv file on its SSD. (SMPlayer does a beautiful job).
Yeah, Adobe is the pits, but Flash is everywhere. It's kind of like the on-line video equivalent of Windows on the desktop: You may view it as OK or you may view it as a steaming pile of dung, but it's everywhere and that's that.
Oh, and Firefox with AdBlock Plus installed (on Windows, Mac, and Linux) makes all of those Flash-based ads silently disappear as if they never existed. People who are still complaining about Flash-based ads sound to me as if they are west-bound travelers still complaining that their covered wagons are having trouble crossing the Mississippi.
I predict that YouTube will move to HTML5 video with a downgrade to Flash for IE users once Firefox 3.5 is out. They will be followed by the likes of Vimeo and the BBC iPlayer. This will hopefully be the key turning point. YouTube and the iPlayer both make special cases for the iPhone and serve up plain h264, it would be easier for them to just use the HTML5 video tag with a fallback.
Here's to the future! (clinking of glasses in the background). Let us hope that HTML5 comes quickly enough to allow ALL platforms, Microsoft, Apple, Linux, smart phones... EVERYONE.. to have the same level of function and enjoyment.
For example, HTML5 allows chroma keying and face recognition with only a few lines of Javascript code, YouTube could provide this feature which is not even available in most video editing software.
http://hacks.mozilla.org/2009/06/connecting-htm...
Remember all of this is being done inside the browser and does not use any special extensions.
Full disclosure: I'm a .NET developer, so I'm partial to Microsoft developer technologies.
That said, this comment is based on results for which the jury is still out. Silverlight 3 promises to be an amazing tool. Will it destroy Flash? No. Flash will be around for a long time because it has, as you say, a lot of loyalty and legacy. But the debate is far from over, and Microsoft has only just cleared its throat.
It took a decade, but the .NET Framework has effectively supplanted Java in new development for the Windows platform. Silverlight has a good shot of doing the same to Flash on the Internet. This race isn't over yet.